16+ Ecommerce Statistics & Trends to Know in 2026

Ecommerce in 2026 is no longer a side channel. The latest US Census release pegs online sales at $326.7 billion in the first quarter alone, growing nearly three times faster than total retail. Holiday 2025 set a fresh record, mobile crossed a majority share on the biggest shopping day of the year, and Buy Now, Pay Later finally hit the billion-dollar-day milestone. At the same time, the oldest problem in digital retail, the abandoned cart, still bleeds roughly seven in ten checkouts.

The numbers below come from US Census Bureau filings, Baymard Institute, Adobe Analytics, the National Retail Federation, Digital Commerce 360, eMarketer, and Shopify's global market analysis. We verified each figure against its primary source before publishing, so what you read here matches what the source actually says, decimals and all.

US ecommerce sales and growth

1. US ecommerce hit $326.7 billion in Q1 2026.

The Census Bureau's quarterly retail e-commerce report puts adjusted first-quarter 2026 online sales at $326.7 billion. On an unadjusted basis the figure was $302.3 billion, with adjusted online sales accounting for 16.9% of total retail and unadjusted at 16.8%. That share has been climbing for a decade and is the most reliable single benchmark for tracking how much of the US retail wallet has moved online. (Source: US Census Bureau)

2. Online sales grew 9.8% year over year, while total retail grew just 3.9%.

According to the same Census release, first-quarter 2026 ecommerce sales increased 9.8% (±1.8 points) from the first quarter of 2025, while total retail sales grew 3.9% (±0.5 points) over the same period. Put simply, ecommerce is expanding at roughly two and a half times the rate of total retail, and there is no sign of that gap closing. (Source: US Census Bureau)

3. Global ecommerce is on track for $6.88 trillion in 2026.

Shopify's global ecommerce report, citing eMarketer's forecast, says worldwide online transactions are set to reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, a 7.2% increase from $6.42 trillion in 2025. Online sales are expected to make up 21.1% of total global retail this year, climbing to 22.5% by 2028. The world is roughly one in five retail dollars online and rising. (Source: Shopify / eMarketer)

Holiday 2025 and peak shopping events

4. US holiday online spending hit a record $257.8 billion.

Adobe Analytics' season recap reports that consumers spent $257.8 billion online from November 1 to December 31, 2025, up 6.8% year over year. That is a new ecommerce record and beat Adobe's pre-season forecast, with strong demand in apparel, electronics, and groceries. (Source: Adobe Newsroom)

5. Cyber Week pulled in $44.2 billion.

The five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, what Adobe calls Cyber Week, generated $44.2 billion in online spend, up 7.7% from the prior year. The concentration of demand into a single late-November window has only intensified as retailers train shoppers to wait for deeper discounts. (Source: Adobe Newsroom)

6. Cyber Monday became a $14.25 billion day.

Cyber Monday 2025 remained the biggest ecommerce day of the season and the year, delivering $14.25 billion in online spend, a 7.1% year-over-year gain, per Adobe. At peak hours between 8 and 10 p.m. ET, US retailers were ringing up roughly $16 million in sales every single minute. (Source: Digital Commerce 360)

How shoppers paid and checked out

7. Mobile generated 57.5% of Cyber Monday sales.

Digital Commerce 360, citing Adobe data, reports that mobile devices accounted for 57.5% of all digital sales on Cyber Monday 2025, with consumers spending $8.2 billion through their phones on that single day. Roughly 75.9 million US consumers shopped online that day, up from 64.4 million in 2024. Mobile is no longer the second screen, it is the primary checkout. (Source: Digital Commerce 360)

8. Buy Now, Pay Later contributed $20 billion across the holiday season.

Adobe says BNPL usage hit an all-time high during the 2025 holiday window, contributing $20 billion in online spend, up 9.8% year over year. Younger shoppers in particular leaned on flexible payments to stretch budgets against persistent inflation, and merchants increasingly offer multiple BNPL providers at checkout to capture the conversion lift. (Source: Adobe Newsroom)

9. Cyber Monday became the first billion-dollar BNPL day.

Digital Commerce 360 confirmed that US consumers spent $1.03 billion using Buy Now, Pay Later on Cyber Monday 2025, the first time the payment method has cleared the billion-dollar mark in a single day. BNPL has officially graduated from niche to default for a meaningful slice of checkouts, especially in apparel, electronics, and home goods. (Source: Digital Commerce 360)

10. Generative AI referral traffic to retail sites jumped 693.4% during the holidays.

Per Adobe, traffic to US retail sites from generative AI tools increased 693.4% compared to the prior holiday season. On Cyber Monday alone, AI referral traffic to US retail was up 670% year over year. Volumes are still modest in absolute terms but the trajectory is steep, and product discovery is starting to shift from search results to chatbot answers. (Source: Adobe Newsroom)

Consumer behavior and friction

11. The average cart abandonment rate is 70.22%.

The Baymard Institute's running compilation of 50 separate studies on online checkout produces an average shopping cart abandonment rate of 70.22%. The figure has barely moved in a decade, suggesting most checkout friction, surprise shipping costs, forced account creation, slow load times, complicated returns policies, is structural rather than cyclical. Recovery emails and one-click checkout typically claw back only a fraction. (Source: Baymard Institute)

12. 45% of US adults expect free shipping on any order.

An August 2025 Radial / Dynata survey of 1,000 US adults, reported by eMarketer, found that 45% of US adults expect free shipping on any order, and 16% of those shoppers will not complete a purchase if they have to pay for shipping. Free shipping is now table stakes, not a perk, and retailers absorbing it as a customer-acquisition cost is the new normal. (Source: eMarketer)

13. 55% of digital shoppers worldwide rank free shipping as a top factor.

The same eMarketer roundup cites January Ipsos data showing 55% of digital shoppers worldwide consider free shipping one of the most important factors when buying online, while a separate Criteo survey found 42% of shoppers chose to shop in-store rather than online to avoid shipping costs and wait times. Speed and delivery economics now influence the channel decision before the product decision. (Source: eMarketer)

Holiday budgets and seasonality

14. Average per-person holiday spending plans landed at $890.49.

NRF's annual consumer survey, conducted October 1 to 7 by Prosper Insights & Analytics among 8,247 adult consumers (±1.1 point margin of error), found respondents planned to spend an average of $890.49 per person on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items. That made it the second-highest amount in the survey's 23-year history, despite ongoing concern about tariffs and prices. (Source: NRF)

15. Of that, $627.93 goes to gifts and $262.56 to seasonal items.

Per the same NRF survey, the average household budget breaks down to $627.93 for gifts to family and friends and $262.56 for seasonal items like food, candy, decorations, and greeting cards. The total figure is 1.3% below 2024's record of $901.99, a soft pullback rather than a retreat, and one largely concentrated in non-gift categories. (Source: NRF)

16. NRF projected total November-December holiday sales between $1.01 and $1.02 trillion.

The National Retail Federation forecast that US retail sales in November and December 2025 would grow between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024, reaching total spending of $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, the first time holiday sales were expected to clear the trillion-dollar mark. Adobe's $257.8 billion online figure represents roughly a quarter of that pie. (Source: NRF)

Frequently Asked Questions

The numbers in this post were pulled and cross-checked against their primary sources in May 2026, and we will refresh them when new Census, Adobe, NRF, or Baymard data drops. If you are tracking the same metrics for your own store, the bookmarks above are the canonical ones to keep open. For more verified, source-backed retail reporting and shopping guides, keep 99coupons.ai in your reading rotation.